Израильские военные готовы нанести удар по Ирану после получения приказа — Генштаб

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israeli military receives order to strike Iran. Iran retaliates with missile strikes on Israeli targets. International community condemns both sides, leading to increased tensions and potential for a wider conflict. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements from Israeli leadership confirming an imminent attack on Iranian targets followed by reports of Iranian ballistic missile launches. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** No escalation occurs, with ongoing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel maintains a strong military posture but refrains from direct action. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued communication between Israeli and Iranian officials, including high-level meetings and phone calls. * **Time horizon:** 30 days

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israeli military receives order to strike Iran. Iran retaliates with missile strikes on Israeli targets. International community condemns both sides, leading to increased tensions and potential for a wider conflict. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements from Israeli leadership confirming an imminent attack on Iranian targets followed by reports of Iranian ballistic missile launches. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** No escalation occurs, with ongoing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel maintains a strong military posture but refrains from direct action. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued communication between Israeli and Iranian officials, including high-level meetings and phone calls. * **Time horizon:** 30 days

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israeli military receives order to strike Iran. Iran retaliates with missile strikes on Israeli targets. International community condemns both sides, leading to increased tensions and potential for a wider conflict. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements from Israeli leadership confirming an imminent attack on Iranian targets followed by reports of Iranian ballistic missile launches. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** No escalation occurs, with ongoing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel maintains a strong military posture but refrains from direct action. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued communication between Israeli and Iranian officials, including high-level meetings and phone calls. * **Time horizon:** 30 days