Иран частично закрывает западное воздушное пространство из-за ракетных обстрелов

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's partial airspace closure sparks heightened tensions with Israel and Western powers. Israel retaliates with further strikes on Iranian military targets, escalating the conflict into a wider regional confrontation. This could include increased air strikes on Iranian infrastructure, potentially targeting key ports or oil facilities. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased public rhetoric from Israeli leaders regarding potential escalation; 2) Reports of heightened military activity in both Israel and Iran over the next week. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Iran and Israel, with international organizations like the UN playing a mediating role. This could involve increased communication channel

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's partial airspace closure sparks heightened tensions with Israel and Western powers. Israel retaliates with further strikes on Iranian military targets, escalating the conflict into a wider regional confrontation. This could include increased air strikes on Iranian infrastructure, potentially targeting key ports or oil facilities. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased public rhetoric from Israeli leaders regarding potential escalation; 2) Reports of heightened military activity in both Israel and Iran over the next week. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Iran and Israel, with international organizations like the UN playing a mediating role. This could involve increased communication channel

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's partial airspace closure sparks heightened tensions with Israel and Western powers. Israel retaliates with further strikes on Iranian military targets, escalating the conflict into a wider regional confrontation. This could include increased air strikes on Iranian infrastructure, potentially targeting key ports or oil facilities. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased public rhetoric from Israeli leaders regarding potential escalation; 2) Reports of heightened military activity in both Israel and Iran over the next week. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Iran and Israel, with international organizations like the UN playing a mediating role. This could involve increased communication channel