НАТО с небольшим перевесом побеждает врага российского типа в моделировании кибератак

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** NATO's simulated response to online propaganda mirroring Moscow's wartime tactics triggers a heightened sense of threat and distrust between member states. This leads to increased military spending by several nations, particularly in Eastern Europe, as they prepare for potential conflict. A series of diplomatic miscommunications ensues, escalating tensions between NATO members and Russia. * Increased public rhetoric from NATO members regarding the need for greater military preparedness. * A noticeable spike in arms sales to Eastern European countries. * A formal declaration by a NATO member country expressing concerns about the "escalation" of Russian cyber activities. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The simulation serves as a wake-up call, prompting NATO

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** NATO's simulated response to online propaganda mirroring Moscow's wartime tactics triggers a heightened sense of threat and distrust between member states. This leads to increased military spending by several nations, particularly in Eastern Europe, as they prepare for potential conflict. A series of diplomatic miscommunications ensues, escalating tensions between NATO members and Russia. * Increased public rhetoric from NATO members regarding the need for greater military preparedness. * A noticeable spike in arms sales to Eastern European countries. * A formal declaration by a NATO member country expressing concerns about the "escalation" of Russian cyber activities. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The simulation serves as a wake-up call, prompting NATO

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** NATO's simulated response to online propaganda mirroring Moscow's wartime tactics triggers a heightened sense of threat and distrust between member states. This leads to increased military spending by several nations, particularly in Eastern Europe, as they prepare for potential conflict. A series of diplomatic miscommunications ensues, escalating tensions between NATO members and Russia. * Increased public rhetoric from NATO members regarding the need for greater military preparedness. * A noticeable spike in arms sales to Eastern European countries. * A formal declaration by a NATO member country expressing concerns about the "escalation" of Russian cyber activities. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The simulation serves as a wake-up call, prompting NATO