Мировые авиакомпании снизили прогноз прибыли на 2026 год из-за топливного шока из-за войны в Иране

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Iran-US tensions escalate into direct military conflict, leading to heightened regional instability and increased global political uncertainty. International sanctions on Iran's oil exports are intensified, causing a sharp spike in global energy prices. * **Confirmation indicators:** A significant increase in US military presence in the region, followed by publicly announced threats of military action from both sides of the conflict. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The current geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, with a focus on diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. Global airlines continue to adapt by adjusting routes and optimizing fuel usage. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued negotiations between Iran and Western powers, with no significant

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Iran-US tensions escalate into direct military conflict, leading to heightened regional instability and increased global political uncertainty. International sanctions on Iran's oil exports are intensified, causing a sharp spike in global energy prices. * **Confirmation indicators:** A significant increase in US military presence in the region, followed by publicly announced threats of military action from both sides of the conflict. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The current geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, with a focus on diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. Global airlines continue to adapt by adjusting routes and optimizing fuel usage. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued negotiations between Iran and Western powers, with no significant

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Iran-US tensions escalate into direct military conflict, leading to heightened regional instability and increased global political uncertainty. International sanctions on Iran's oil exports are intensified, causing a sharp spike in global energy prices. * **Confirmation indicators:** A significant increase in US military presence in the region, followed by publicly announced threats of military action from both sides of the conflict. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The current geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, with a focus on diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. Global airlines continue to adapt by adjusting routes and optimizing fuel usage. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued negotiations between Iran and Western powers, with no significant