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geopolitical··severity 8

Иран предупреждает Израиль о возмездии после нападения на Бейрут - депутат

«Посмотрите на небо над оккупированными землями сегодня вечером», — написал на X представитель иранского парламентского комитета по национальной безопасности и внешней политике Эбрагим Резаи.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data: **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** What: Iran's retaliation against Israel for its attack on Beirut in two days. In how many days: 2 What effect: Increased tensions between Iran and Israel, potentially leading to a military conflict in the region. Confirmation indicators: 1. Israeli Prime Minister announces plans to increase military presence in the Negev Desert. 2. Iranian President vows to take "firm action" against Israel. 3. Hizballah leader threatens to retaliate against Israel with precision strikes. Time horizon: 2026-06-09T00:00:00+00:00 to 2026-06-11T00:00:00+00:00 **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** The situation remains relatively calm, with both sides avoiding direct confrontation. Confirmation indicators: 1. Iranian Foreign Minister holds emergency talks with his Israeli counterpart. 2. Hizballah leader issues a statemen

B

Status Quo

38%

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data: **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** What: Iran's retaliation against Israel for its attack on Beirut in two days. In how many days: 2 What effect: Increased tensions between Iran and Israel, potentially leading to a military conflict in the region. Confirmation indicators: 1. Israeli Prime Minister announces plans to increase military presence in the Negev Desert. 2. Iranian President vows to take "firm action" against Israel. 3. Hizballah leader threatens to retaliate against Israel with precision strikes. Time horizon: 2026-06-09T00:00:00+00:00 to 2026-06-11T00:00:00+00:00 **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** The situation remains relatively calm, with both sides avoiding direct confrontation. Confirmation indicators: 1. Iranian Foreign Minister holds emergency talks with his Israeli counterpart. 2. Hizballah leader issues a statemen

C

De-escalation

13%

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data: **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** What: Iran's retaliation against Israel for its attack on Beirut in two days. In how many days: 2 What effect: Increased tensions between Iran and Israel, potentially leading to a military conflict in the region. Confirmation indicators: 1. Israeli Prime Minister announces plans to increase military presence in the Negev Desert. 2. Iranian President vows to take "firm action" against Israel. 3. Hizballah leader threatens to retaliate against Israel with precision strikes. Time horizon: 2026-06-09T00:00:00+00:00 to 2026-06-11T00:00:00+00:00 **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** The situation remains relatively calm, with both sides avoiding direct confrontation. Confirmation indicators: 1. Iranian Foreign Minister holds emergency talks with his Israeli counterpart. 2. Hizballah leader issues a statemen

Первичный источник: TASS English

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