Какова цель «Квадрата» по мере развития стратегического ландшафта Азии?
Когда министры иностранных дел стран, входящих в Четырехсторонний диалог по безопасности (Quad), собрались в Нью-Дели на прошлой неделе, повестка дня выглядела знакомой: устойчивость цепочки поставок, телекоммуникационная безопасность и осведомленность о морской сфере. Темы для обсуждения изменились, инициативы умножились, а встречи стали рутинными. Азия вступает в новую стратегическую эру. Однако ее геополитические дебаты по-прежнему застревают в прежних дебатах. По всему региону правительства инвестируют в...
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** China's military exercises in disputed territories near Japan and Taiwan escalate to include simulated attacks on US bases in the region. This triggers a formal declaration of "strategic ambiguity" by the US regarding its commitment to Taiwan. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased Chinese naval activity near Japanese and Taiwanese waters, including live-fire drills, followed by a joint statement from China and Russia condemning US military presence in Asia. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Quad continues to hold regular meetings focused on supply chain resilience and telecommunications security, with increased emphasis on regional cooperation. However, progress on concrete initiatives remains slow due to differing political priorities and diplomatic tensions. * **
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** China's military exercises in disputed territories near Japan and Taiwan escalate to include simulated attacks on US bases in the region. This triggers a formal declaration of "strategic ambiguity" by the US regarding its commitment to Taiwan. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased Chinese naval activity near Japanese and Taiwanese waters, including live-fire drills, followed by a joint statement from China and Russia condemning US military presence in Asia. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Quad continues to hold regular meetings focused on supply chain resilience and telecommunications security, with increased emphasis on regional cooperation. However, progress on concrete initiatives remains slow due to differing political priorities and diplomatic tensions. * **
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** China's military exercises in disputed territories near Japan and Taiwan escalate to include simulated attacks on US bases in the region. This triggers a formal declaration of "strategic ambiguity" by the US regarding its commitment to Taiwan. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased Chinese naval activity near Japanese and Taiwanese waters, including live-fire drills, followed by a joint statement from China and Russia condemning US military presence in Asia. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Quad continues to hold regular meetings focused on supply chain resilience and telecommunications security, with increased emphasis on regional cooperation. However, progress on concrete initiatives remains slow due to differing political priorities and diplomatic tensions. * **
Первичный источник: South China Morning Post
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