Сколько раз США и Иран были на грани соглашения? — прогноз цепочек

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US-Israel conflict escalates, leading to increased tensions with Iran. US imposes further sanctions on Iranian economy, including energy sector. Iran retaliates by increasing naval activity near US and Israeli shipping lanes. This triggers a series of escalating military actions, potentially involving proxy forces in the region. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** US-Israel conflict continues with limited escalation. Diplomatic efforts continue between US and Iran to de-escalate tensions, but progress is slow. This leads to a stalemate in negotiations and continued economic sanctions on both side

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased rhetoric from both US and Iran, media reports detailing increased military deployments, and confirmed incidents of direct or indirect attacks on civilian infrastructure.

B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US-Israel conflict escalates, leading to increased tensions with Iran. US imposes further sanctions on Iranian economy, including energy sector. Iran retaliates by increasing naval activity near US and Israeli shipping lanes. This triggers a series of escalating military actions, potentially involving proxy forces in the region. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** US-Israel conflict continues with limited escalation. Diplomatic efforts continue between US and Iran to de-escalate tensions, but progress is slow. This leads to a stalemate in negotiations and continued economic sanctions on both side

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased rhetoric from both US and Iran, media reports detailing increased military deployments, and confirmed incidents of direct or indirect attacks on civilian infrastructure.

C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US-Israel conflict escalates, leading to increased tensions with Iran. US imposes further sanctions on Iranian economy, including energy sector. Iran retaliates by increasing naval activity near US and Israeli shipping lanes. This triggers a series of escalating military actions, potentially involving proxy forces in the region. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** US-Israel conflict continues with limited escalation. Diplomatic efforts continue between US and Iran to de-escalate tensions, but progress is slow. This leads to a stalemate in negotiations and continued economic sanctions on both side

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased rhetoric from both US and Iran, media reports detailing increased military deployments, and confirmed incidents of direct or indirect attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Сценарии цепочки

Escalation

Status Quo

De-escalation