Северная Корея не откажется от ядерного оружия, заявила сестра Ким Чен Ына

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** North Korea's statement fuels tensions with South Korea and Japan, leading to military exercises and increased troop deployments along the border. These actions are met with countermeasures from the US and allies, potentially escalating to joint military drills in the region. This triggers a heightened risk of miscalculation or accidental conflict. - Increased rhetoric from both North Korean and South Korean officials regarding the use of force. - Public statements from US military leaders indicating increased readiness for potential action. - Confirmed deployment of additional troops and weaponry along the border by both sides. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline:** North Korea continues its nuclear program, but maintains a cautious approach towards international ne

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** North Korea's statement fuels tensions with South Korea and Japan, leading to military exercises and increased troop deployments along the border. These actions are met with countermeasures from the US and allies, potentially escalating to joint military drills in the region. This triggers a heightened risk of miscalculation or accidental conflict. - Increased rhetoric from both North Korean and South Korean officials regarding the use of force. - Public statements from US military leaders indicating increased readiness for potential action. - Confirmed deployment of additional troops and weaponry along the border by both sides. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline:** North Korea continues its nuclear program, but maintains a cautious approach towards international ne

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** North Korea's statement fuels tensions with South Korea and Japan, leading to military exercises and increased troop deployments along the border. These actions are met with countermeasures from the US and allies, potentially escalating to joint military drills in the region. This triggers a heightened risk of miscalculation or accidental conflict. - Increased rhetoric from both North Korean and South Korean officials regarding the use of force. - Public statements from US military leaders indicating increased readiness for potential action. - Confirmed deployment of additional troops and weaponry along the border by both sides. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline:** North Korea continues its nuclear program, but maintains a cautious approach towards international ne