Мужчина открыл стрельбу в центре Израиля, убив одного человека и ранив пятерых

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israeli government declares state of emergency, increasing military deployment in and around central Israel. International community condemns attack, calls for increased security measures. Tensions rise between Israel and Palestine, with Hamas threatening retaliation. This leads to a surge in anti-Israel sentiment globally, potentially triggering boycotts or sanctions. * Israeli government declares state of emergency within 24 hours of the attack. * International condemnation of the attack from major powers like the US, EU, and UN within 72 hours. * Hamas issues a public statement threatening retaliation within 48 hours. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The Israeli government implements increased security measures in central Israel, including heightened po

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israeli government declares state of emergency, increasing military deployment in and around central Israel. International community condemns attack, calls for increased security measures. Tensions rise between Israel and Palestine, with Hamas threatening retaliation. This leads to a surge in anti-Israel sentiment globally, potentially triggering boycotts or sanctions. * Israeli government declares state of emergency within 24 hours of the attack. * International condemnation of the attack from major powers like the US, EU, and UN within 72 hours. * Hamas issues a public statement threatening retaliation within 48 hours. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The Israeli government implements increased security measures in central Israel, including heightened po

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israeli government declares state of emergency, increasing military deployment in and around central Israel. International community condemns attack, calls for increased security measures. Tensions rise between Israel and Palestine, with Hamas threatening retaliation. This leads to a surge in anti-Israel sentiment globally, potentially triggering boycotts or sanctions. * Israeli government declares state of emergency within 24 hours of the attack. * International condemnation of the attack from major powers like the US, EU, and UN within 72 hours. * Hamas issues a public statement threatening retaliation within 48 hours. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The Israeli government implements increased security measures in central Israel, including heightened po