Насколько сильно война в Иране поднимет инфляцию в США?

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Escalation in tensions between the US and Iran escalates beyond diplomatic channels, leading to increased military deployments by both sides within days. This escalation triggers a surge in geopolitical risk premiums across global markets, causing volatility in currency exchange rates and impacting stock market indices. - A direct attack on Iranian nuclear facilities or an incident involving US troops near the Persian Gulf. - Increased rhetoric from both US and Iranian leaders regarding military action. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The US and Iran maintain a delicate balance in their diplomatic relations, with limited progress on the nuclear issue. This leads to continued concerns about potential conflict, but no significant escalation occurs.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Escalation in tensions between the US and Iran escalates beyond diplomatic channels, leading to increased military deployments by both sides within days. This escalation triggers a surge in geopolitical risk premiums across global markets, causing volatility in currency exchange rates and impacting stock market indices. - A direct attack on Iranian nuclear facilities or an incident involving US troops near the Persian Gulf. - Increased rhetoric from both US and Iranian leaders regarding military action. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The US and Iran maintain a delicate balance in their diplomatic relations, with limited progress on the nuclear issue. This leads to continued concerns about potential conflict, but no significant escalation occurs.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Escalation in tensions between the US and Iran escalates beyond diplomatic channels, leading to increased military deployments by both sides within days. This escalation triggers a surge in geopolitical risk premiums across global markets, causing volatility in currency exchange rates and impacting stock market indices. - A direct attack on Iranian nuclear facilities or an incident involving US troops near the Persian Gulf. - Increased rhetoric from both US and Iranian leaders regarding military action. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The US and Iran maintain a delicate balance in their diplomatic relations, with limited progress on the nuclear issue. This leads to continued concerns about potential conflict, but no significant escalation occurs.