Авиакомпании рискуют потерять 100 миллиардов долларов на авиатопливе из-за энергетического шока в Иране

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's energy sector faces sanctions due to its nuclear program and support for militant groups. This leads to increased global tensions, impacting international travel and trade. Airlines face pressure from higher fuel costs and reduced demand, leading to a significant decline in profitability. **Confirmation indicators:** A formal declaration of sanctions by the UN Security Council, followed by a sharp rise in oil prices globally within 2 weeks. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Airlines and governments negotiate temporary fuel price adjustments to mitigate cost increases. The industry adjusts travel patterns and airline routes to optimize efficiency, leading to a gradual slowdown in growth but no major economic downturn. **Confirmation indicators:** A global agreement on temporary fuel price cap

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's energy sector faces sanctions due to its nuclear program and support for militant groups. This leads to increased global tensions, impacting international travel and trade. Airlines face pressure from higher fuel costs and reduced demand, leading to a significant decline in profitability. **Confirmation indicators:** A formal declaration of sanctions by the UN Security Council, followed by a sharp rise in oil prices globally within 2 weeks. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Airlines and governments negotiate temporary fuel price adjustments to mitigate cost increases. The industry adjusts travel patterns and airline routes to optimize efficiency, leading to a gradual slowdown in growth but no major economic downturn. **Confirmation indicators:** A global agreement on temporary fuel price cap

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's energy sector faces sanctions due to its nuclear program and support for militant groups. This leads to increased global tensions, impacting international travel and trade. Airlines face pressure from higher fuel costs and reduced demand, leading to a significant decline in profitability. **Confirmation indicators:** A formal declaration of sanctions by the UN Security Council, followed by a sharp rise in oil prices globally within 2 weeks. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Airlines and governments negotiate temporary fuel price adjustments to mitigate cost increases. The industry adjusts travel patterns and airline routes to optimize efficiency, leading to a gradual slowdown in growth but no major economic downturn. **Confirmation indicators:** A global agreement on temporary fuel price cap