ОПЕК+ намерена снова увеличить добычу нефти
ОПЕК+ намерена снова увеличить целевые показатели добычи нефти ОПЕК+ собирается согласовать в воскресенье четвертое увеличение целевых показателей добычи нефти за столько же месяцев, сообщили Reuters три источника из нефтяного картеля, хотя война с Ираном по-прежнему не позволяет некоторым членам добывать больше нефти. Война привела к сокращению потоков нефти через Ормузский пролив, что привело к крупнейшему в мире кризису поставок, поскольку ключевые члены ОПЕК+, включая Саудовскую Аравию, не могут поставлять нефть клиентам в полном объеме с конца февраля, сообщает Reuters. Объединенные Арабские Эмираты недавно, спустя 60 лет, вышли из нефтяного картеля, что усугубило кризис внутри него. Семь основных членов ОПЕК+, в которую входят ОПЕК и союзные производители, включая Россию, увеличили свои квоты на добычу с апреля по июнь почти на 600 000 баррелей в день.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** The escalation chain begins with Opec+ members continuing to increase oil output quotas despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. This leads to increased competition for market share, potentially exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and driving up prices further. Confirmation indicators include a significant surge in geopolitical risk premiums across global markets (e.g., a spike in the VIX index) and escalating rhetoric from key players involved in the Iran conflict. This escalation could occur within 10 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The status quo scenario sees Opec+ members maintaining their current output quotas, albeit facing continued pressure to increase production due to global demand. Confirmation indicators include a lack of major geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and the continuation of existing sup
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** The escalation chain begins with Opec+ members continuing to increase oil output quotas despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. This leads to increased competition for market share, potentially exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and driving up prices further. Confirmation indicators include a significant surge in geopolitical risk premiums across global markets (e.g., a spike in the VIX index) and escalating rhetoric from key players involved in the Iran conflict. This escalation could occur within 10 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The status quo scenario sees Opec+ members maintaining their current output quotas, albeit facing continued pressure to increase production due to global demand. Confirmation indicators include a lack of major geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and the continuation of existing sup
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** The escalation chain begins with Opec+ members continuing to increase oil output quotas despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. This leads to increased competition for market share, potentially exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and driving up prices further. Confirmation indicators include a significant surge in geopolitical risk premiums across global markets (e.g., a spike in the VIX index) and escalating rhetoric from key players involved in the Iran conflict. This escalation could occur within 10 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The status quo scenario sees Opec+ members maintaining their current output quotas, albeit facing continued pressure to increase production due to global demand. Confirmation indicators include a lack of major geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and the continuation of existing sup
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
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