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geopolitical··severity 9

Удар России по ядерному объекту расценен как военное преступление, здание МАГАТЭ повреждено – фото

В ходе российского удара по территории централизованного хранилища отработавшего ядерного топлива вблизи Чернобыльской АЭС были повреждены административное здание МАГАТЭ и здание приема и передачи отработавшего ядерного топлива. Служба безопасности Украины квалифицировала случившееся как военное преступление.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates its military campaign in response to the IAEA building damage. A series of retaliatory strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and personnel are carried out, including potential cyberattacks on critical energy and communication networks. The international community condemns the attack as a war crime, leading to increased sanctions against Russia. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation, leading to international pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to maintain a ceasefire. The IAEA inve

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** (1) Russian military forces launch additional attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure within 72 hours; (2) Increased rhetoric from Russian officials regarding escalation of conflict with NATO countries.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates its military campaign in response to the IAEA building damage. A series of retaliatory strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and personnel are carried out, including potential cyberattacks on critical energy and communication networks. The international community condemns the attack as a war crime, leading to increased sanctions against Russia. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation, leading to international pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to maintain a ceasefire. The IAEA inve

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** (1) Russian military forces launch additional attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure within 72 hours; (2) Increased rhetoric from Russian officials regarding escalation of conflict with NATO countries.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates its military campaign in response to the IAEA building damage. A series of retaliatory strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and personnel are carried out, including potential cyberattacks on critical energy and communication networks. The international community condemns the attack as a war crime, leading to increased sanctions against Russia. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation, leading to international pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to maintain a ceasefire. The IAEA inve

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** (1) Russian military forces launch additional attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure within 72 hours; (2) Increased rhetoric from Russian officials regarding escalation of conflict with NATO countries.

Первичный источник: Ukrainska Pravda

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