Иранская война: 100 дней

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Tensions escalate as Iran engages in further military exercises near contested borders with its regional rivals. Israel retaliates with targeted airstrikes against Iranian military installations, triggering a series of reciprocal attacks. This escalates to full-scale war within 10 days, leading to increased international condemnation and sanctions. * Increased rhetoric from both Iran and Israel regarding the other's actions. * Confirmed reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets. * US and EU issuing joint statements condemning the escalation and imposing further sanctions. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current tensions remain unresolved, with both sides continuing to engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. A temporary ceasefire agreemen

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Tensions escalate as Iran engages in further military exercises near contested borders with its regional rivals. Israel retaliates with targeted airstrikes against Iranian military installations, triggering a series of reciprocal attacks. This escalates to full-scale war within 10 days, leading to increased international condemnation and sanctions. * Increased rhetoric from both Iran and Israel regarding the other's actions. * Confirmed reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets. * US and EU issuing joint statements condemning the escalation and imposing further sanctions. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current tensions remain unresolved, with both sides continuing to engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. A temporary ceasefire agreemen

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Tensions escalate as Iran engages in further military exercises near contested borders with its regional rivals. Israel retaliates with targeted airstrikes against Iranian military installations, triggering a series of reciprocal attacks. This escalates to full-scale war within 10 days, leading to increased international condemnation and sanctions. * Increased rhetoric from both Iran and Israel regarding the other's actions. * Confirmed reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets. * US and EU issuing joint statements condemning the escalation and imposing further sanctions. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current tensions remain unresolved, with both sides continuing to engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. A temporary ceasefire agreemen