Россия строит ядерный плацдарм в Египте

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's nuclear beachhead development in Egypt triggers increased military activity in the region. Egypt joins NATO with Russia facing sanctions and diplomatic isolation. A series of proxy conflicts erupts between Russia and Western powers, escalating tensions in the Mediterranean. * **Russia deploys nuclear-capable missiles to the Sinai Peninsula.** * **Egypt participates in joint military exercises with NATO forces in the North African region.** * **Western countries impose new sanctions on Russia's energy sector and restrict trade with Egypt.** ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The development of a Russian nuclear beachhead in Egypt remains largely unacknowledged, leading to increased diplomatic tension. Russia maintains its presence in the region through

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's nuclear beachhead development in Egypt triggers increased military activity in the region. Egypt joins NATO with Russia facing sanctions and diplomatic isolation. A series of proxy conflicts erupts between Russia and Western powers, escalating tensions in the Mediterranean. * **Russia deploys nuclear-capable missiles to the Sinai Peninsula.** * **Egypt participates in joint military exercises with NATO forces in the North African region.** * **Western countries impose new sanctions on Russia's energy sector and restrict trade with Egypt.** ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The development of a Russian nuclear beachhead in Egypt remains largely unacknowledged, leading to increased diplomatic tension. Russia maintains its presence in the region through

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's nuclear beachhead development in Egypt triggers increased military activity in the region. Egypt joins NATO with Russia facing sanctions and diplomatic isolation. A series of proxy conflicts erupts between Russia and Western powers, escalating tensions in the Mediterranean. * **Russia deploys nuclear-capable missiles to the Sinai Peninsula.** * **Egypt participates in joint military exercises with NATO forces in the North African region.** * **Western countries impose new sanctions on Russia's energy sector and restrict trade with Egypt.** ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The development of a Russian nuclear beachhead in Egypt remains largely unacknowledged, leading to increased diplomatic tension. Russia maintains its presence in the region through