Нападение Ирана на Израиль направлено на восстановление сдерживания, но предотвращение возврата к войне

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Iran launches a significant missile attack against Israel's military infrastructure, including airbases and key communication nodes. This act aims to demonstrate its military capabilities and deter further Israeli aggression. The retaliatory response from Israel is swift and decisive, targeting Iranian military facilities and potentially escalating the conflict to a full-scale war. * **Timeline:** Within 72 hours of Iran's initial attack, Israel launches a series of airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq. * **Events:** The United States condemns Iran's actions and imposes sanctions on key Iranian figures, leading to a diplomatic standoff with the US and its allies. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** Iran launches a limited missile attack against Israel’s

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Iran launches a significant missile attack against Israel's military infrastructure, including airbases and key communication nodes. This act aims to demonstrate its military capabilities and deter further Israeli aggression. The retaliatory response from Israel is swift and decisive, targeting Iranian military facilities and potentially escalating the conflict to a full-scale war. * **Timeline:** Within 72 hours of Iran's initial attack, Israel launches a series of airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq. * **Events:** The United States condemns Iran's actions and imposes sanctions on key Iranian figures, leading to a diplomatic standoff with the US and its allies. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** Iran launches a limited missile attack against Israel’s

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Iran launches a significant missile attack against Israel's military infrastructure, including airbases and key communication nodes. This act aims to demonstrate its military capabilities and deter further Israeli aggression. The retaliatory response from Israel is swift and decisive, targeting Iranian military facilities and potentially escalating the conflict to a full-scale war. * **Timeline:** Within 72 hours of Iran's initial attack, Israel launches a series of airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq. * **Events:** The United States condemns Iran's actions and imposes sanctions on key Iranian figures, leading to a diplomatic standoff with the US and its allies. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** Iran launches a limited missile attack against Israel’s