Израиль нанес удары по южным пригородам Бейрута через несколько дней после того, как США поддержали соглашение о прекращении огня

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's strikes in Beirut southern suburbs trigger retaliatory action from Hezbollah. Hezbollah launches long-range missiles into Israeli territory within 48 hours, escalating tensions further. This leads to a rapid escalation of military activity by both sides and potential for increased regional instability. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The situation remains largely unchanged, with both Israel and Lebanon maintaining a cautious approach. A temporary ceasefire agreement is upheld for the next few days, but tensions remain high. International pressure on both sides to de-escalate continues.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's strikes in Beirut southern suburbs trigger retaliatory action from Hezbollah. Hezbollah launches long-range missiles into Israeli territory within 48 hours, escalating tensions further. This leads to a rapid escalation of military activity by both sides and potential for increased regional instability. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The situation remains largely unchanged, with both Israel and Lebanon maintaining a cautious approach. A temporary ceasefire agreement is upheld for the next few days, but tensions remain high. International pressure on both sides to de-escalate continues.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's strikes in Beirut southern suburbs trigger retaliatory action from Hezbollah. Hezbollah launches long-range missiles into Israeli territory within 48 hours, escalating tensions further. This leads to a rapid escalation of military activity by both sides and potential for increased regional instability. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The situation remains largely unchanged, with both Israel and Lebanon maintaining a cautious approach. A temporary ceasefire agreement is upheld for the next few days, but tensions remain high. International pressure on both sides to de-escalate continues.