Станет ли линкор типа «Трамп» легкой добычей для китайских ракет-убийц авианосцев?
Комитет Конгресса США поставил под сомнение программу Дональда Трампа «Золотой флот», предупредив, что она может сокрушить и без того напряженные мощности по производству атомных кораблей, и призвал к подробному пересмотру ее центрального линкора. Один депутат также предупредил об уязвимости линкоров в современной морской войне, сославшись на возможности серии ракет Dongfeng Народно-освободительной армии, в которую входит баллистическая ракета DF-21D, широко известная как «убийца авианосцев». ...
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** US Congress's skepticism over "Golden Fleet" program leads to increased public scrutiny and pressure on the US Navy regarding the battleship's viability. This creates a diplomatic crisis with China, potentially escalating into military exercises or even direct confrontations in the South China Sea. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Public statements from US officials expressing concerns about the "Golden Fleet" program's feasibility and its impact on naval power projection. 2) Chinese media outlets publishing articles highlighting the vulnerability of battleships and potential for US-China conflict escalation. * **Time Horizon:** 3 to 6 months **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The "Golden Fleet" program continues as planned, with a focus on building the necessary infrastructure and expertise for its event
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** US Congress's skepticism over "Golden Fleet" program leads to increased public scrutiny and pressure on the US Navy regarding the battleship's viability. This creates a diplomatic crisis with China, potentially escalating into military exercises or even direct confrontations in the South China Sea. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Public statements from US officials expressing concerns about the "Golden Fleet" program's feasibility and its impact on naval power projection. 2) Chinese media outlets publishing articles highlighting the vulnerability of battleships and potential for US-China conflict escalation. * **Time Horizon:** 3 to 6 months **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The "Golden Fleet" program continues as planned, with a focus on building the necessary infrastructure and expertise for its event
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** US Congress's skepticism over "Golden Fleet" program leads to increased public scrutiny and pressure on the US Navy regarding the battleship's viability. This creates a diplomatic crisis with China, potentially escalating into military exercises or even direct confrontations in the South China Sea. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Public statements from US officials expressing concerns about the "Golden Fleet" program's feasibility and its impact on naval power projection. 2) Chinese media outlets publishing articles highlighting the vulnerability of battleships and potential for US-China conflict escalation. * **Time Horizon:** 3 to 6 months **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The "Golden Fleet" program continues as planned, with a focus on building the necessary infrastructure and expertise for its event
Первичный источник: South China Morning Post
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