Число погибших в результате атак Израиля на Ливан превысило 3610 человек - Минздрав

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's airstrikes on Lebanon escalate into a larger-scale military conflict, with Hezbollah launching retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets. The conflict expands to include regional powers like Syria and Iran, potentially leading to increased cross-border skirmishes and the deployment of additional troops. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Escalation of airstrikes beyond southern Lebanon into northern areas; 2) Confirmation of Hezbollah involvement in retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets; 3) Increased military presence from regional powers like Syria and Iran near the conflict zone. * **Time Horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The situation remains stagnant, with Israel and Lebanon maintaining a tense standoff. However, diplomatic efforts continue to be pursued by inter

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's airstrikes on Lebanon escalate into a larger-scale military conflict, with Hezbollah launching retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets. The conflict expands to include regional powers like Syria and Iran, potentially leading to increased cross-border skirmishes and the deployment of additional troops. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Escalation of airstrikes beyond southern Lebanon into northern areas; 2) Confirmation of Hezbollah involvement in retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets; 3) Increased military presence from regional powers like Syria and Iran near the conflict zone. * **Time Horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The situation remains stagnant, with Israel and Lebanon maintaining a tense standoff. However, diplomatic efforts continue to be pursued by inter

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's airstrikes on Lebanon escalate into a larger-scale military conflict, with Hezbollah launching retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets. The conflict expands to include regional powers like Syria and Iran, potentially leading to increased cross-border skirmishes and the deployment of additional troops. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Escalation of airstrikes beyond southern Lebanon into northern areas; 2) Confirmation of Hezbollah involvement in retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets; 3) Increased military presence from regional powers like Syria and Iran near the conflict zone. * **Time Horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The situation remains stagnant, with Israel and Lebanon maintaining a tense standoff. However, diplomatic efforts continue to be pursued by inter