От онлайн-класса до площади Революции: распорядок дня тегеранской учительницы в условиях войны

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Teacher's routine becomes a focal point for protests as internet outages and economic hardship increase. Protests escalate, leading to government crackdowns and increased security measures. Tensions rise between the government and protesters. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of violent clashes between protestors and security forces, widespread social media posts of teacher-led protests with hashtags like #TehranStronger. **Time horizon:** 20 to 30 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Baseline:** Teacher's routine continues amidst ongoing economic hardship and political tensions. Protests remain largely peaceful, but government crackdowns on dissent continue. The teacher navigates the new reality of a volatile environment. **Confirmation indicators:** Continued reports of protests with limited partici

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Teacher's routine becomes a focal point for protests as internet outages and economic hardship increase. Protests escalate, leading to government crackdowns and increased security measures. Tensions rise between the government and protesters. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of violent clashes between protestors and security forces, widespread social media posts of teacher-led protests with hashtags like #TehranStronger. **Time horizon:** 20 to 30 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Baseline:** Teacher's routine continues amidst ongoing economic hardship and political tensions. Protests remain largely peaceful, but government crackdowns on dissent continue. The teacher navigates the new reality of a volatile environment. **Confirmation indicators:** Continued reports of protests with limited partici

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Teacher's routine becomes a focal point for protests as internet outages and economic hardship increase. Protests escalate, leading to government crackdowns and increased security measures. Tensions rise between the government and protesters. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of violent clashes between protestors and security forces, widespread social media posts of teacher-led protests with hashtags like #TehranStronger. **Time horizon:** 20 to 30 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Baseline:** Teacher's routine continues amidst ongoing economic hardship and political tensions. Protests remain largely peaceful, but government crackdowns on dissent continue. The teacher navigates the new reality of a volatile environment. **Confirmation indicators:** Continued reports of protests with limited partici