ХАМАС и Палестинский исламский джихад называют стрельбу «естественным последствием» насилия над поселенцами
ХАМАС, Палестинский исламский джихад, заявляет, что стрельба поселенцев является «естественным последствием» ХАМАС заявил, что смертоносная стрельба в центре Израиля является ответом на «агрессию против сектора Газа и продолжающиеся преступления иудаизации, внесудебные казни, расширение поселений, рейды и ежедневные нападения на наш народ на Западном Берегу и в Иерусалиме». «Оккупация – как бы далеко она ни зашла в своем угнетении и преступлениях – не сможет остановить рост сопротивления на доблестном Западном Берегу», – говорится в заявлении организации. Тем временем Палестинский исламский джихад (PIJ) заявил, что нападение является «естественным следствием преступной политики, проводимой военным преступным правительством сионистского образования».
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Hamas and PIJ launch further attacks against Israeli targets in response to the initial shooting. Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Gaza, targeting Hamas infrastructure and military positions. This escalation triggers a humanitarian crisis in Gaza as civilian casualties rise. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Reports of additional militant attacks on Israeli settlements or military installations within 24-72 hours. Increased public statements from both sides indicating intent for further escalation. * **Time Horizon:** 10-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Israel and Hamas remain engaged in a tense standoff, with occasional skirmishes along the border. The international community urges de-escalation but provides limited support to either side. This leads to continued tensions and security concern
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Hamas and PIJ launch further attacks against Israeli targets in response to the initial shooting. Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Gaza, targeting Hamas infrastructure and military positions. This escalation triggers a humanitarian crisis in Gaza as civilian casualties rise. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Reports of additional militant attacks on Israeli settlements or military installations within 24-72 hours. Increased public statements from both sides indicating intent for further escalation. * **Time Horizon:** 10-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Israel and Hamas remain engaged in a tense standoff, with occasional skirmishes along the border. The international community urges de-escalation but provides limited support to either side. This leads to continued tensions and security concern
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Hamas and PIJ launch further attacks against Israeli targets in response to the initial shooting. Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Gaza, targeting Hamas infrastructure and military positions. This escalation triggers a humanitarian crisis in Gaza as civilian casualties rise. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Reports of additional militant attacks on Israeli settlements or military installations within 24-72 hours. Increased public statements from both sides indicating intent for further escalation. * **Time Horizon:** 10-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Israel and Hamas remain engaged in a tense standoff, with occasional skirmishes along the border. The international community urges de-escalation but provides limited support to either side. This leads to continued tensions and security concern
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
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