«Силы обороны Израиля» состоят из 3 ливанских военных на региональной пленаре

## Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% **Chain:** Israel's military action against Lebanese forces triggers retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah, potentially escalating to broader regional conflict involving Syria and Iran. This may lead to increased tensions between Israel and Lebanon, with potential for direct military engagements. - Increased activity on social media platforms depicting violence and condemnation of Israeli actions. - Reports of heightened military presence along the Lebanese border by Hezbollah or other proxy groups. - Diplomatic efforts faltering as regional powers remain divided on how to respond. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts from international organizations like the UN and EU, aiming for a de-escalation through dialogue and mediation. This may

## Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% **Chain:** Israel's military action against Lebanese forces triggers retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah, potentially escalating to broader regional conflict involving Syria and Iran. This may lead to increased tensions between Israel and Lebanon, with potential for direct military engagements. - Increased activity on social media platforms depicting violence and condemnation of Israeli actions. - Reports of heightened military presence along the Lebanese border by Hezbollah or other proxy groups. - Diplomatic efforts faltering as regional powers remain divided on how to respond. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts from international organizations like the UN and EU, aiming for a de-escalation through dialogue and mediation. This may

## Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% **Chain:** Israel's military action against Lebanese forces triggers retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah, potentially escalating to broader regional conflict involving Syria and Iran. This may lead to increased tensions between Israel and Lebanon, with potential for direct military engagements. - Increased activity on social media platforms depicting violence and condemnation of Israeli actions. - Reports of heightened military presence along the Lebanese border by Hezbollah or other proxy groups. - Diplomatic efforts faltering as regional powers remain divided on how to respond. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts from international organizations like the UN and EU, aiming for a de-escalation through dialogue and mediation. This may