Стив Розенберг: Непреходящий образ российского экономического форума … — прогноз цепочек

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Putin's economic forum is further overshadowed by increased Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian infrastructure and military sites. Diplomatic tensions escalate with Western nations imposing stricter sanctions on Russia, potentially affecting key energy exports. This leads to a surge in geopolitical uncertainty, impacting global markets. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The economic forum continues, with a focus on continued dialogue between Russia and the West despite tensions. Russia attempts to mitigate the impact of sanctions through alternative trade routes and partnerships with Asian nations. This leads to a

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased frequency of reported drone attacks on Russian targets and official statements from Western governments about the intensification of sanctions.

B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Putin's economic forum is further overshadowed by increased Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian infrastructure and military sites. Diplomatic tensions escalate with Western nations imposing stricter sanctions on Russia, potentially affecting key energy exports. This leads to a surge in geopolitical uncertainty, impacting global markets. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The economic forum continues, with a focus on continued dialogue between Russia and the West despite tensions. Russia attempts to mitigate the impact of sanctions through alternative trade routes and partnerships with Asian nations. This leads to a

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased frequency of reported drone attacks on Russian targets and official statements from Western governments about the intensification of sanctions.

C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Putin's economic forum is further overshadowed by increased Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian infrastructure and military sites. Diplomatic tensions escalate with Western nations imposing stricter sanctions on Russia, potentially affecting key energy exports. This leads to a surge in geopolitical uncertainty, impacting global markets. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The economic forum continues, with a focus on continued dialogue between Russia and the West despite tensions. Russia attempts to mitigate the impact of sanctions through alternative trade routes and partnerships with Asian nations. This leads to a

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased frequency of reported drone attacks on Russian targets and official statements from Western governments about the intensification of sanctions.

Стив Розенберг: Непреходящий образ российского экономического форума – это клуб дыма над Санкт-Петербургом

Сценарии цепочки

Escalation

Status Quo

De-escalation