Европейские лидеры поддержали призыв Зеленского к прямым переговорам с Россией

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia escalates its military campaign in Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing troop deployments near the border with NATO countries. This could include missile strikes on Ukrainian cities or a renewed offensive within the eastern Donbas region. * **Confirmation indicators:** Reports of increased Russian military activity in Ukraine, including deployment of additional troops and heavy weaponry. A significant escalation in cyberattacks against Ukrainian government institutions and critical infrastructure. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts remain stalled due to conflicting positions between Ukraine and Russia, leading to a stalemate in negotiations for a ceasefire. Increased international pressure on both sides to reach an agreement c

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia escalates its military campaign in Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing troop deployments near the border with NATO countries. This could include missile strikes on Ukrainian cities or a renewed offensive within the eastern Donbas region. * **Confirmation indicators:** Reports of increased Russian military activity in Ukraine, including deployment of additional troops and heavy weaponry. A significant escalation in cyberattacks against Ukrainian government institutions and critical infrastructure. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts remain stalled due to conflicting positions between Ukraine and Russia, leading to a stalemate in negotiations for a ceasefire. Increased international pressure on both sides to reach an agreement c

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia escalates its military campaign in Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing troop deployments near the border with NATO countries. This could include missile strikes on Ukrainian cities or a renewed offensive within the eastern Donbas region. * **Confirmation indicators:** Reports of increased Russian military activity in Ukraine, including deployment of additional troops and heavy weaponry. A significant escalation in cyberattacks against Ukrainian government institutions and critical infrastructure. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts remain stalled due to conflicting positions between Ukraine and Russia, leading to a stalemate in negotiations for a ceasefire. Increased international pressure on both sides to reach an agreement c