СИПРИ: Мир не достижим, ядерное оружие возвращается

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Increased nuclear rhetoric from major powers escalates into direct military exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons. Tensions rise in regions with existing nuclear arsenals, leading to heightened diplomatic pressure and a potential arms race. This could trigger a rapid escalation of tensions between key players. * Public statements by high-ranking officials explicitly mentioning the use of tactical nuclear weapons in military exercises. * Increased deployment of long-range missiles with a clear threat posture towards specific countries. * U.S. and Russia conducting joint military drills involving simulated nuclear attacks. **Time horizon:** 10 to 30 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline:** The global arms race continues, but with a focus on maintaining existing deterrence mechanisms rather

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Increased nuclear rhetoric from major powers escalates into direct military exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons. Tensions rise in regions with existing nuclear arsenals, leading to heightened diplomatic pressure and a potential arms race. This could trigger a rapid escalation of tensions between key players. * Public statements by high-ranking officials explicitly mentioning the use of tactical nuclear weapons in military exercises. * Increased deployment of long-range missiles with a clear threat posture towards specific countries. * U.S. and Russia conducting joint military drills involving simulated nuclear attacks. **Time horizon:** 10 to 30 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline:** The global arms race continues, but with a focus on maintaining existing deterrence mechanisms rather

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Increased nuclear rhetoric from major powers escalates into direct military exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons. Tensions rise in regions with existing nuclear arsenals, leading to heightened diplomatic pressure and a potential arms race. This could trigger a rapid escalation of tensions between key players. * Public statements by high-ranking officials explicitly mentioning the use of tactical nuclear weapons in military exercises. * Increased deployment of long-range missiles with a clear threat posture towards specific countries. * U.S. and Russia conducting joint military drills involving simulated nuclear attacks. **Time horizon:** 10 to 30 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline:** The global arms race continues, but with a focus on maintaining existing deterrence mechanisms rather