Токио и Сеул возобновили совместные морские учения спустя девять лет :: Новости дня / ВЗГЛЯД

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Following the resumption of joint naval exercises between Tokyo and Seoul, tensions may escalate due to historical friction over territorial disputes in the Sea of Japan/East Sea. This could lead to increased military activity near disputed islands, potentially resulting in a temporary escalation of rhetoric and diplomatic pressure. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased deployments of naval vessels by both countries near disputed islands, public statements from officials expressing strong stances on territorial claims, and media coverage highlighting the historical tensions. This escalation could occur within 2-3 weeks. * **Time horizon:** 2-4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Joint naval exercises may be viewed as a gesture of cooperation to maintain regional stability, with both countries pri

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Following the resumption of joint naval exercises between Tokyo and Seoul, tensions may escalate due to historical friction over territorial disputes in the Sea of Japan/East Sea. This could lead to increased military activity near disputed islands, potentially resulting in a temporary escalation of rhetoric and diplomatic pressure. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased deployments of naval vessels by both countries near disputed islands, public statements from officials expressing strong stances on territorial claims, and media coverage highlighting the historical tensions. This escalation could occur within 2-3 weeks. * **Time horizon:** 2-4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Joint naval exercises may be viewed as a gesture of cooperation to maintain regional stability, with both countries pri

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Following the resumption of joint naval exercises between Tokyo and Seoul, tensions may escalate due to historical friction over territorial disputes in the Sea of Japan/East Sea. This could lead to increased military activity near disputed islands, potentially resulting in a temporary escalation of rhetoric and diplomatic pressure. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased deployments of naval vessels by both countries near disputed islands, public statements from officials expressing strong stances on territorial claims, and media coverage highlighting the historical tensions. This escalation could occur within 2-3 weeks. * **Time horizon:** 2-4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Joint naval exercises may be viewed as a gesture of cooperation to maintain regional stability, with both countries pri