Российский беспилотник нанес удар по ядерному складу под Чернобылем

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's drone attack triggers heightened tensions with Ukraine and NATO allies. Increased military activity in the region, including increased air patrols and naval exercises near the border, ensues. Diplomatic channels remain strained, leading to a potential escalation of rhetoric from both sides. This could lead to an increase in sanctions targeting Russian energy sectors and further restrictions on trade. * Russia announces deployment of additional military units to the region within 72 hours. * NATO member states announce joint military exercises near the Ukrainian border within 1 week. * A significant increase in cyberattacks against both Ukraine and Western infrastructure is observed within 3 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident trigger

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's drone attack triggers heightened tensions with Ukraine and NATO allies. Increased military activity in the region, including increased air patrols and naval exercises near the border, ensues. Diplomatic channels remain strained, leading to a potential escalation of rhetoric from both sides. This could lead to an increase in sanctions targeting Russian energy sectors and further restrictions on trade. * Russia announces deployment of additional military units to the region within 72 hours. * NATO member states announce joint military exercises near the Ukrainian border within 1 week. * A significant increase in cyberattacks against both Ukraine and Western infrastructure is observed within 3 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident trigger

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's drone attack triggers heightened tensions with Ukraine and NATO allies. Increased military activity in the region, including increased air patrols and naval exercises near the border, ensues. Diplomatic channels remain strained, leading to a potential escalation of rhetoric from both sides. This could lead to an increase in sanctions targeting Russian energy sectors and further restrictions on trade. * Russia announces deployment of additional military units to the region within 72 hours. * NATO member states announce joint military exercises near the Ukrainian border within 1 week. * A significant increase in cyberattacks against both Ukraine and Western infrastructure is observed within 3 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident trigger