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geopolitical··severity 9

Законодательное собрание Боливии приняло закон, разрешающий использовать войска против протестующих

Новый закон дает президенту право использовать армию для разминирования блокпостов, установленных на фоне недельных антиправительственных демонстраций.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Bolivian president uses military to clear roadblocks, triggering increased violence from protesters and potential retaliatory actions by government forces. This escalates into a larger armed conflict with regional instability as neighboring countries intervene to protect their interests or provide support to the protestors. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Bolivian government maintains a cautious approach to the protests, utilizing non-lethal force to disperse protestors and negotiate with opposition leaders. The situation remains tense but stable, with sporadic demonstrations and continued pressure for political re

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased reports of clashes between protestors and military, escalation in rhetoric from both sides, and international condemnation of Bolivia's actions.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Bolivian president uses military to clear roadblocks, triggering increased violence from protesters and potential retaliatory actions by government forces. This escalates into a larger armed conflict with regional instability as neighboring countries intervene to protect their interests or provide support to the protestors. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Bolivian government maintains a cautious approach to the protests, utilizing non-lethal force to disperse protestors and negotiate with opposition leaders. The situation remains tense but stable, with sporadic demonstrations and continued pressure for political re

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased reports of clashes between protestors and military, escalation in rhetoric from both sides, and international condemnation of Bolivia's actions.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Bolivian president uses military to clear roadblocks, triggering increased violence from protesters and potential retaliatory actions by government forces. This escalates into a larger armed conflict with regional instability as neighboring countries intervene to protect their interests or provide support to the protestors. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Bolivian government maintains a cautious approach to the protests, utilizing non-lethal force to disperse protestors and negotiate with opposition leaders. The situation remains tense but stable, with sporadic demonstrations and continued pressure for political re

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased reports of clashes between protestors and military, escalation in rhetoric from both sides, and international condemnation of Bolivia's actions.

Первичный источник: Al Jazeera

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