Цены на нефть подскочили после того, как иранские ракеты угрожают хрупкому перемирию

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran launches additional missile strikes against targets in Israel or Saudi Arabia, escalating tensions beyond initial ceasefire agreements. This leads to retaliatory action from Israel or Saudi Arabia, triggering a broader regional conflict involving other countries with historical ties to the region. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased military activity between Iran and Israel/Saudi Arabia, including air defense systems activation and potential missile launches. International condemnation of Iranian actions by major powers. * **Time Horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The initial threat of escalation leads to increased diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation, with international pressure and negotiations between Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. However, a fragile ceasefire r

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran launches additional missile strikes against targets in Israel or Saudi Arabia, escalating tensions beyond initial ceasefire agreements. This leads to retaliatory action from Israel or Saudi Arabia, triggering a broader regional conflict involving other countries with historical ties to the region. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased military activity between Iran and Israel/Saudi Arabia, including air defense systems activation and potential missile launches. International condemnation of Iranian actions by major powers. * **Time Horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The initial threat of escalation leads to increased diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation, with international pressure and negotiations between Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. However, a fragile ceasefire r

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran launches additional missile strikes against targets in Israel or Saudi Arabia, escalating tensions beyond initial ceasefire agreements. This leads to retaliatory action from Israel or Saudi Arabia, triggering a broader regional conflict involving other countries with historical ties to the region. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased military activity between Iran and Israel/Saudi Arabia, including air defense systems activation and potential missile launches. International condemnation of Iranian actions by major powers. * **Time Horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The initial threat of escalation leads to increased diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation, with international pressure and negotiations between Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. However, a fragile ceasefire r