Центральный банк Израиля вмешался в валютную торговлю, чтобы обуздать шекель

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's central bank intervention in the FX market sparks a diplomatic escalation with neighboring Arab nations who perceive it as an act of aggression. This leads to increased tensions and potential military threats, prompting further intervention by the Bank of Israel to bolster the shekel's value against other currencies. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A public statement from the Israeli government directly linking the central bank's actions to a “defense” strategy against economic aggression. 2) An increase in diplomatic tensions between Israel and neighboring Arab nations, reflected in increased press reports of military exercises or heightened rhetoric. * **Time Horizon:** Days to weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The intervention by the Bank of Israel remains largely unnoticed, with no

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's central bank intervention in the FX market sparks a diplomatic escalation with neighboring Arab nations who perceive it as an act of aggression. This leads to increased tensions and potential military threats, prompting further intervention by the Bank of Israel to bolster the shekel's value against other currencies. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A public statement from the Israeli government directly linking the central bank's actions to a “defense” strategy against economic aggression. 2) An increase in diplomatic tensions between Israel and neighboring Arab nations, reflected in increased press reports of military exercises or heightened rhetoric. * **Time Horizon:** Days to weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The intervention by the Bank of Israel remains largely unnoticed, with no

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's central bank intervention in the FX market sparks a diplomatic escalation with neighboring Arab nations who perceive it as an act of aggression. This leads to increased tensions and potential military threats, prompting further intervention by the Bank of Israel to bolster the shekel's value against other currencies. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A public statement from the Israeli government directly linking the central bank's actions to a “defense” strategy against economic aggression. 2) An increase in diplomatic tensions between Israel and neighboring Arab nations, reflected in increased press reports of military exercises or heightened rhetoric. * **Time Horizon:** Days to weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The intervention by the Bank of Israel remains largely unnoticed, with no