Пакистанские посредники в Иране, пока США сбивают беспилотники, Ливан ищет мира
Министр внутренних дел Пакистана находился в Тегеране в воскресенье с новой попыткой возобновить переговоры между Ираном и США, поскольку американские военные заявили, что сбили еще два иранских беспилотника над Ормузским проливом, которые поставили под угрозу международное морское сообщение. Последние действия были предприняты в тот момент, когда Вашингтон настаивает на том, чтобы Иран заключил соглашение о прекращении войны на Ближнем Востоке, которая создала нагрузку на мировую экономику и угрожает голодным кризисом в некоторых из наиболее уязвимых стран мира. Самый тяжелый...
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** The US-Iran drone conflict escalates with increased military action from both sides. Pakistan's mediation efforts falter, and tensions rise between Iran and the US. This leads to a renewed focus on regional security alliances, potentially leading to increased military spending in countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A formal declaration of war by the US or Iran, followed by escalation in missile tests and direct confrontations between armed forces. * **Time Horizon:** 10-30 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US continues to pressure Iran for a deal to end the war in the Middle East. The Iranian government maintains its stance, and negotiations remain stalled. The conflict's impact on global trade and economic stability remains significant but manageable. * **
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** The US-Iran drone conflict escalates with increased military action from both sides. Pakistan's mediation efforts falter, and tensions rise between Iran and the US. This leads to a renewed focus on regional security alliances, potentially leading to increased military spending in countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A formal declaration of war by the US or Iran, followed by escalation in missile tests and direct confrontations between armed forces. * **Time Horizon:** 10-30 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US continues to pressure Iran for a deal to end the war in the Middle East. The Iranian government maintains its stance, and negotiations remain stalled. The conflict's impact on global trade and economic stability remains significant but manageable. * **
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** The US-Iran drone conflict escalates with increased military action from both sides. Pakistan's mediation efforts falter, and tensions rise between Iran and the US. This leads to a renewed focus on regional security alliances, potentially leading to increased military spending in countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A formal declaration of war by the US or Iran, followed by escalation in missile tests and direct confrontations between armed forces. * **Time Horizon:** 10-30 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US continues to pressure Iran for a deal to end the war in the Middle East. The Iranian government maintains its stance, and negotiations remain stalled. The conflict's impact on global trade and economic stability remains significant but manageable. * **
Первичный источник: South China Morning Post
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