Падение рупии делает Индонезию неотразимой для малазийских туристов и покупателей
Индонезия всегда была излюбленным местом путешествий для малазийцев, и ожидается, что число посетителей увеличится, поскольку валюта соседней страны достигнет рекордно низкого уровня. Президент Ассоциации туризма Малакки Маделина Куа заявила, что низкая рупия дает преимущество малазийцам, путешествующим и совершающим покупки в Индонезии. «Это приведет к удешевлению отпуска, покупок для свадеб и закупок сырья для импорта в ущерб конкурентоспособности экспорта», — сказала она. «Молодые малазийцы...
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Indonesia's currency (Rupiah) continues to depreciate significantly against the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR). This triggers a surge in travel and shopping trips by Malaysians to Indonesia. Increased tourist spending leads to further depreciation of the Rupiah, creating a vicious cycle. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued sharp decline in the Rupiah exchange rate against MYR, exceeding 10% within 14 days. A significant increase in Malaysian tourists visiting Indonesia's popular destinations like Bali and Jakarta as measured by flight bookings. * **Time horizon:** 3-6 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The Rupiah depreciates against the MYR, but at a slower pace than in Scenario A. Malaysian tourists engage in travel and shopping trips to Indonesia, but this activity does not significantly impact
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Indonesia's currency (Rupiah) continues to depreciate significantly against the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR). This triggers a surge in travel and shopping trips by Malaysians to Indonesia. Increased tourist spending leads to further depreciation of the Rupiah, creating a vicious cycle. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued sharp decline in the Rupiah exchange rate against MYR, exceeding 10% within 14 days. A significant increase in Malaysian tourists visiting Indonesia's popular destinations like Bali and Jakarta as measured by flight bookings. * **Time horizon:** 3-6 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The Rupiah depreciates against the MYR, but at a slower pace than in Scenario A. Malaysian tourists engage in travel and shopping trips to Indonesia, but this activity does not significantly impact
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Indonesia's currency (Rupiah) continues to depreciate significantly against the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR). This triggers a surge in travel and shopping trips by Malaysians to Indonesia. Increased tourist spending leads to further depreciation of the Rupiah, creating a vicious cycle. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued sharp decline in the Rupiah exchange rate against MYR, exceeding 10% within 14 days. A significant increase in Malaysian tourists visiting Indonesia's popular destinations like Bali and Jakarta as measured by flight bookings. * **Time horizon:** 3-6 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The Rupiah depreciates against the MYR, but at a slower pace than in Scenario A. Malaysian tourists engage in travel and shopping trips to Indonesia, but this activity does not significantly impact
Первичный источник: South China Morning Post
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