Россия врезалась в АЗС в Херсоне, ранив рабочего

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's attack on the petrol station in Kherson triggers heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia. This escalation could lead to increased military deployments along the Ukrainian border and a renewed focus on strategic infrastructure targets. The situation might spill over into diplomatic channels, leading to sanctions or retaliatory actions from other countries. * Increased activity of Russian military forces near the Ukrainian border within 72 hours. * Public statements from both Russia and Ukraine indicating escalation in rhetoric and threats. * Reports of increased cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure in Ukraine. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident remains isolated, with minimal impact on the geopolitical landscape. Russia might attempt

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's attack on the petrol station in Kherson triggers heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia. This escalation could lead to increased military deployments along the Ukrainian border and a renewed focus on strategic infrastructure targets. The situation might spill over into diplomatic channels, leading to sanctions or retaliatory actions from other countries. * Increased activity of Russian military forces near the Ukrainian border within 72 hours. * Public statements from both Russia and Ukraine indicating escalation in rhetoric and threats. * Reports of increased cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure in Ukraine. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident remains isolated, with minimal impact on the geopolitical landscape. Russia might attempt

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's attack on the petrol station in Kherson triggers heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia. This escalation could lead to increased military deployments along the Ukrainian border and a renewed focus on strategic infrastructure targets. The situation might spill over into diplomatic channels, leading to sanctions or retaliatory actions from other countries. * Increased activity of Russian military forces near the Ukrainian border within 72 hours. * Public statements from both Russia and Ukraine indicating escalation in rhetoric and threats. * Reports of increased cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure in Ukraine. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident remains isolated, with minimal impact on the geopolitical landscape. Russia might attempt