Великобритания, Франция и Германия поддержали прямые украинско-российские переговоры: совместное заявление
Президент Украины Владимир Зеленский получил поддержку лидеров Великобритании, Франции и Германии в призыве к прямым переговорам о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной, говорится в совместном заявлении, опубликованном по итогам переговоров по обороне в Лондоне в воскресенье. Зеленский встретился с премьер-министром Великобритании Кейром Стармером, президентом Франции Эммануэлем Макроном и канцлером Германии Фридрихом Мерцем на Даунинг-стрит, 10 для переговоров, поскольку война с Россией продолжается уже пятый год. Лидеры «поддержали предложение о...
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia escalates its military actions in Ukraine, possibly deploying new tactical weapons systems or increasing troop deployments near Ukrainian borders. This triggers a heightened risk of direct conflict escalation and increases the likelihood of NATO involvement. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Russia deploys long-range missile strikes within Ukraine's sovereign territory, followed by increased NATO military presence on its eastern flank. * **Time Horizon:** Within 1 week to 2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The UK, France and Germany continue diplomatic efforts to facilitate a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, progress is slow due to conflicting interests and distrust on both sides. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A series of high-level meetings between the three countr
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia escalates its military actions in Ukraine, possibly deploying new tactical weapons systems or increasing troop deployments near Ukrainian borders. This triggers a heightened risk of direct conflict escalation and increases the likelihood of NATO involvement. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Russia deploys long-range missile strikes within Ukraine's sovereign territory, followed by increased NATO military presence on its eastern flank. * **Time Horizon:** Within 1 week to 2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The UK, France and Germany continue diplomatic efforts to facilitate a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, progress is slow due to conflicting interests and distrust on both sides. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A series of high-level meetings between the three countr
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia escalates its military actions in Ukraine, possibly deploying new tactical weapons systems or increasing troop deployments near Ukrainian borders. This triggers a heightened risk of direct conflict escalation and increases the likelihood of NATO involvement. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Russia deploys long-range missile strikes within Ukraine's sovereign territory, followed by increased NATO military presence on its eastern flank. * **Time Horizon:** Within 1 week to 2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The UK, France and Germany continue diplomatic efforts to facilitate a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, progress is slow due to conflicting interests and distrust on both sides. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A series of high-level meetings between the three countr
Первичный источник: South China Morning Post
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