Удар российского беспилотника повредил объект возле Чернобыльской АЭС

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia increases military presence near the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and Ukraine retaliates with increased drone strikes on Russian infrastructure within its borders, escalating tensions. This escalation could lead to a direct confrontation between the two countries' militaries in the coming weeks. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased deployment of Russian military forces near the border, Ukrainian officials publicly threatening retaliation against specific targets within Russia. * **Time Horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident is condemned by international bodies and diplomatic efforts are launched to de-escalate tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainian government focuses on rebuilding infrastructure near the plant, while Russia maintains a heightened militar

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia increases military presence near the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and Ukraine retaliates with increased drone strikes on Russian infrastructure within its borders, escalating tensions. This escalation could lead to a direct confrontation between the two countries' militaries in the coming weeks. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased deployment of Russian military forces near the border, Ukrainian officials publicly threatening retaliation against specific targets within Russia. * **Time Horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident is condemned by international bodies and diplomatic efforts are launched to de-escalate tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainian government focuses on rebuilding infrastructure near the plant, while Russia maintains a heightened militar

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia increases military presence near the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and Ukraine retaliates with increased drone strikes on Russian infrastructure within its borders, escalating tensions. This escalation could lead to a direct confrontation between the two countries' militaries in the coming weeks. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased deployment of Russian military forces near the border, Ukrainian officials publicly threatening retaliation against specific targets within Russia. * **Time Horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident is condemned by international bodies and diplomatic efforts are launched to de-escalate tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainian government focuses on rebuilding infrastructure near the plant, while Russia maintains a heightened militar