Трамп оказывает давление на Уорша, призывая к снижению ставок
Президент США повышает ставки на выбор центрального банка, поскольку растут ожидания, что стоимость заимствований вырастет
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's public pressure on the Fed Chair nominee for rate cuts intensifies, leading to increased political pressure from both sides of the aisle. This pressure could lead to a delay in the Fed's decision regarding interest rates, with potential market volatility and uncertainty. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The Fed continues with its planned interest rate hike trajectory, based on existing economic data and inflation concerns. The process unfolds as expected, with the market reacting to the news of a potential rate increase.
Status Quo
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's public pressure on the Fed Chair nominee for rate cuts intensifies, leading to increased political pressure from both sides of the aisle. This pressure could lead to a delay in the Fed's decision regarding interest rates, with potential market volatility and uncertainty. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The Fed continues with its planned interest rate hike trajectory, based on existing economic data and inflation concerns. The process unfolds as expected, with the market reacting to the news of a potential rate increase.
De-escalation
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's public pressure on the Fed Chair nominee for rate cuts intensifies, leading to increased political pressure from both sides of the aisle. This pressure could lead to a delay in the Fed's decision regarding interest rates, with potential market volatility and uncertainty. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The Fed continues with its planned interest rate hike trajectory, based on existing economic data and inflation concerns. The process unfolds as expected, with the market reacting to the news of a potential rate increase.
Первичный источник: FT World
Хотите получать такие сценарии в email или Telegram до публикации в каталоге?
Тарифы и подписки →