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geopolitical··severity 6

Трамп оказывает давление на Уорша, призывая к снижению ставок

Президент США повышает ставки на выбор центрального банка, поскольку растут ожидания, что стоимость заимствований вырастет

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's public pressure on the Fed Chair nominee for rate cuts intensifies, leading to increased political pressure from both sides of the aisle. This pressure could lead to a delay in the Fed's decision regarding interest rates, with potential market volatility and uncertainty. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The Fed continues with its planned interest rate hike trajectory, based on existing economic data and inflation concerns. The process unfolds as expected, with the market reacting to the news of a potential rate increase.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** A formal statement from Trump directly challenging the Fed Chair nominee's qualifications, followed by a public address where he explicitly calls for rate cuts.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's public pressure on the Fed Chair nominee for rate cuts intensifies, leading to increased political pressure from both sides of the aisle. This pressure could lead to a delay in the Fed's decision regarding interest rates, with potential market volatility and uncertainty. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The Fed continues with its planned interest rate hike trajectory, based on existing economic data and inflation concerns. The process unfolds as expected, with the market reacting to the news of a potential rate increase.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** A formal statement from Trump directly challenging the Fed Chair nominee's qualifications, followed by a public address where he explicitly calls for rate cuts.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's public pressure on the Fed Chair nominee for rate cuts intensifies, leading to increased political pressure from both sides of the aisle. This pressure could lead to a delay in the Fed's decision regarding interest rates, with potential market volatility and uncertainty. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The Fed continues with its planned interest rate hike trajectory, based on existing economic data and inflation concerns. The process unfolds as expected, with the market reacting to the news of a potential rate increase.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** A formal statement from Trump directly challenging the Fed Chair nominee's qualifications, followed by a public address where he explicitly calls for rate cuts.

Первичный источник: FT World

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