В результате обстрелов Россией Херсонской и Донецкой областей двое мирных жителей погибли и 19 получили ранения

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and military targets in response to the civilian casualties. Increased shelling intensifies in Kherson and Donetsk oblasts, targeting critical infrastructure like power plants and bridges. This leads to a sharp increase in civilian displacement and humanitarian aid requests. Russia may also announce increased military deployments in the region. * **Increase in Russian military activity:** Increased drone strikes or missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and military installations. * **Ukrainian government statements:** Official announcements of escalation by the Ukrainian government, including a formal declaration of war. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident serves as a flashpoint for diplomatic efforts to de-

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and military targets in response to the civilian casualties. Increased shelling intensifies in Kherson and Donetsk oblasts, targeting critical infrastructure like power plants and bridges. This leads to a sharp increase in civilian displacement and humanitarian aid requests. Russia may also announce increased military deployments in the region. * **Increase in Russian military activity:** Increased drone strikes or missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and military installations. * **Ukrainian government statements:** Official announcements of escalation by the Ukrainian government, including a formal declaration of war. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident serves as a flashpoint for diplomatic efforts to de-

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and military targets in response to the civilian casualties. Increased shelling intensifies in Kherson and Donetsk oblasts, targeting critical infrastructure like power plants and bridges. This leads to a sharp increase in civilian displacement and humanitarian aid requests. Russia may also announce increased military deployments in the region. * **Increase in Russian military activity:** Increased drone strikes or missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and military installations. * **Ukrainian government statements:** Official announcements of escalation by the Ukrainian government, including a formal declaration of war. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident serves as a flashpoint for diplomatic efforts to de-