Трейдеры облигаций делают ставку на рост индекса потребительских цен, что усиливает аргументы в пользу поворота ФРС

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Strong CPI data fuels further bond market volatility, leading to increased borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. This triggers a renewed focus on the Fed's rate hike trajectory, potentially pushing the Fed to raise rates at their next meeting in July. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A significant increase in the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% and strong language from Fed officials indicating an imminent rate hike. * **Time Horizon:** Within 2 weeks after CPI release. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The CPI report is released, but market reaction remains muted. Inflation continues to be a concern for the Federal Reserve, but they remain hesitant to make drastic changes in their monetary policy due to potential economic slowdown concerns. * **Confirmation Indicators:** The Fed releases a stateme

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Strong CPI data fuels further bond market volatility, leading to increased borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. This triggers a renewed focus on the Fed's rate hike trajectory, potentially pushing the Fed to raise rates at their next meeting in July. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A significant increase in the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% and strong language from Fed officials indicating an imminent rate hike. * **Time Horizon:** Within 2 weeks after CPI release. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The CPI report is released, but market reaction remains muted. Inflation continues to be a concern for the Federal Reserve, but they remain hesitant to make drastic changes in their monetary policy due to potential economic slowdown concerns. * **Confirmation Indicators:** The Fed releases a stateme

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Strong CPI data fuels further bond market volatility, leading to increased borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. This triggers a renewed focus on the Fed's rate hike trajectory, potentially pushing the Fed to raise rates at their next meeting in July. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A significant increase in the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% and strong language from Fed officials indicating an imminent rate hike. * **Time Horizon:** Within 2 weeks after CPI release. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The CPI report is released, but market reaction remains muted. Inflation continues to be a concern for the Federal Reserve, but they remain hesitant to make drastic changes in their monetary policy due to potential economic slowdown concerns. * **Confirmation Indicators:** The Fed releases a stateme