ВКС России нанесли удары по украинским позициям в Днепропетровской и Херсонской областях

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's strike triggers a rapid escalation in military activity. Russia deploys additional air and missile systems to Ukrainian positions in the Dnepropetrovsk and Kherson regions, increasing pressure on Ukrainian forces. Western countries respond by imposing further sanctions on Russia, potentially escalating tensions with Moscow. This leads to increased risk of direct conflict between NATO and Russia. 1. Increased Russian military activity near Ukrainian border in the coming days (e.g., increased troop movements). 2. Western nations announce new sanctions against Russia within 72 hours following the initial strikes. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The strike is met with a measured response from Ukraine and international actors. Ukraine retaliates with limited de

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's strike triggers a rapid escalation in military activity. Russia deploys additional air and missile systems to Ukrainian positions in the Dnepropetrovsk and Kherson regions, increasing pressure on Ukrainian forces. Western countries respond by imposing further sanctions on Russia, potentially escalating tensions with Moscow. This leads to increased risk of direct conflict between NATO and Russia. 1. Increased Russian military activity near Ukrainian border in the coming days (e.g., increased troop movements). 2. Western nations announce new sanctions against Russia within 72 hours following the initial strikes. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The strike is met with a measured response from Ukraine and international actors. Ukraine retaliates with limited de

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's strike triggers a rapid escalation in military activity. Russia deploys additional air and missile systems to Ukrainian positions in the Dnepropetrovsk and Kherson regions, increasing pressure on Ukrainian forces. Western countries respond by imposing further sanctions on Russia, potentially escalating tensions with Moscow. This leads to increased risk of direct conflict between NATO and Russia. 1. Increased Russian military activity near Ukrainian border in the coming days (e.g., increased troop movements). 2. Western nations announce new sanctions against Russia within 72 hours following the initial strikes. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The strike is met with a measured response from Ukraine and international actors. Ukraine retaliates with limited de