Израиль нанес удары по южным пригородам столицы Ливана Бейрута

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's attack on Beirut triggers retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah in Lebanon and possibly other regional actors. Tensions escalate as Lebanese officials accuse Israel of targeting civilians, leading to a humanitarian crisis. The UN Security Council holds emergency meetings, but fails to reach consensus on action. A diplomatic stalemate ensues with the risk of wider conflict escalating. * Hezbollah announces retaliatory strikes within 24-72 hours. * Reports of increased Israeli military activity in Lebanon within 48 hours. * UN Security Council Resolution condemning Israel's actions and calling for de-escalation fails to pass. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The attack triggers a diplomatic crisis, with both sides engaging in high-level negotiations and efforts to

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's attack on Beirut triggers retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah in Lebanon and possibly other regional actors. Tensions escalate as Lebanese officials accuse Israel of targeting civilians, leading to a humanitarian crisis. The UN Security Council holds emergency meetings, but fails to reach consensus on action. A diplomatic stalemate ensues with the risk of wider conflict escalating. * Hezbollah announces retaliatory strikes within 24-72 hours. * Reports of increased Israeli military activity in Lebanon within 48 hours. * UN Security Council Resolution condemning Israel's actions and calling for de-escalation fails to pass. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The attack triggers a diplomatic crisis, with both sides engaging in high-level negotiations and efforts to

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's attack on Beirut triggers retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah in Lebanon and possibly other regional actors. Tensions escalate as Lebanese officials accuse Israel of targeting civilians, leading to a humanitarian crisis. The UN Security Council holds emergency meetings, but fails to reach consensus on action. A diplomatic stalemate ensues with the risk of wider conflict escalating. * Hezbollah announces retaliatory strikes within 24-72 hours. * Reports of increased Israeli military activity in Lebanon within 48 hours. * UN Security Council Resolution condemning Israel's actions and calling for de-escalation fails to pass. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The attack triggers a diplomatic crisis, with both sides engaging in high-level negotiations and efforts to