Аль-Джазира сообщает из Бейрута после израильской атаки

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's attacks in Beirut escalate into a larger conflict with Hezbollah, potentially involving Syrian and Lebanese forces as allies. This could trigger retaliatory strikes from Iran or other regional powers. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity near the border between Lebanon and Syria; reports of increased Iranian involvement in Lebanese affairs; diplomatic tensions escalating between Israel and key international players. * **Time horizon:** 10 to 20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The immediate aftermath of the attacks sees a continued focus on humanitarian aid and political negotiations, with Lebanon seeking international support for reconstruction efforts. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased diplomatic engagement between Israel and Lebanon; United Nations Sec

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's attacks in Beirut escalate into a larger conflict with Hezbollah, potentially involving Syrian and Lebanese forces as allies. This could trigger retaliatory strikes from Iran or other regional powers. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity near the border between Lebanon and Syria; reports of increased Iranian involvement in Lebanese affairs; diplomatic tensions escalating between Israel and key international players. * **Time horizon:** 10 to 20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The immediate aftermath of the attacks sees a continued focus on humanitarian aid and political negotiations, with Lebanon seeking international support for reconstruction efforts. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased diplomatic engagement between Israel and Lebanon; United Nations Sec

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's attacks in Beirut escalate into a larger conflict with Hezbollah, potentially involving Syrian and Lebanese forces as allies. This could trigger retaliatory strikes from Iran or other regional powers. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity near the border between Lebanon and Syria; reports of increased Iranian involvement in Lebanese affairs; diplomatic tensions escalating between Israel and key international players. * **Time horizon:** 10 to 20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The immediate aftermath of the attacks sees a continued focus on humanitarian aid and political negotiations, with Lebanon seeking international support for reconstruction efforts. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased diplomatic engagement between Israel and Lebanon; United Nations Sec