Трамп заявил, что у Нетаньяху «нет другого выбора», кроме как принять соглашение с Ираном
Трамп говорит, что у Нетаньяху «нет другого выбора», кроме как принять соглашение с Ираном Трамп заявил Financial Times, что у премьер-министра Израиля Биньямина Нетаньяху «не будет другого выбора», кроме как принять соглашение с Ираном, даже после того, как Тегеран выпустил ракеты по Израилю. Трамп сказал, что он командует «всем… не он командует», имея в виду Нетаньяху. Он добавил, что нападения Ирана на Израиль не изменили его желания достичь соглашения.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's statements, coupled with Iran's missile attacks, lead to increased tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel escalates military actions against Iranian targets in retaliation, potentially triggering a wider regional conflict. This escalation could involve direct Israeli-Iranian conflict or proxy wars involving other regional powers like Hezbollah and Syria. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity by both Israel and Iran within the next week, followed by statements from senior officials of both countries indicating an increase in tensions and potential for further escalation. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** While tensions remain high, diplomatic efforts continue between Israel and Iran to de-escalate the situation. The US plays a mediating role
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's statements, coupled with Iran's missile attacks, lead to increased tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel escalates military actions against Iranian targets in retaliation, potentially triggering a wider regional conflict. This escalation could involve direct Israeli-Iranian conflict or proxy wars involving other regional powers like Hezbollah and Syria. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity by both Israel and Iran within the next week, followed by statements from senior officials of both countries indicating an increase in tensions and potential for further escalation. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** While tensions remain high, diplomatic efforts continue between Israel and Iran to de-escalate the situation. The US plays a mediating role
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's statements, coupled with Iran's missile attacks, lead to increased tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel escalates military actions against Iranian targets in retaliation, potentially triggering a wider regional conflict. This escalation could involve direct Israeli-Iranian conflict or proxy wars involving other regional powers like Hezbollah and Syria. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity by both Israel and Iran within the next week, followed by statements from senior officials of both countries indicating an increase in tensions and potential for further escalation. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** While tensions remain high, diplomatic efforts continue between Israel and Iran to de-escalate the situation. The US plays a mediating role
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
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