← Каталог сценариев
geopolitical··severity 6

Избиратели недовольны тем, как Трамп справляется с инфляцией и ценами на продукты — опрос FT

Президента США обвиняют в высокой стоимости жизни, поскольку война в Иране усугубляет недовольство

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's approval ratings decline further, leading to increased pressure from Congress and political rivals for policy changes. This fuels tensions with Iran, potentially escalating into direct conflict. The US imposes sanctions on Iranian oil exports, triggering a global energy crisis. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The US government implements targeted fiscal measures to address inflation and grocery prices. This may include tax breaks for low-income households, increased spending on social programs, or adjustments to import tariffs. The Iranian conflict remains volatile but doesn't escalate into direct confrontation.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** A significant increase in anti, Trump protests across the US, followed by a formal impeachment inquiry initiated by Congress.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's approval ratings decline further, leading to increased pressure from Congress and political rivals for policy changes. This fuels tensions with Iran, potentially escalating into direct conflict. The US imposes sanctions on Iranian oil exports, triggering a global energy crisis. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The US government implements targeted fiscal measures to address inflation and grocery prices. This may include tax breaks for low-income households, increased spending on social programs, or adjustments to import tariffs. The Iranian conflict remains volatile but doesn't escalate into direct confrontation.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** A significant increase in anti, Trump protests across the US, followed by a formal impeachment inquiry initiated by Congress.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's approval ratings decline further, leading to increased pressure from Congress and political rivals for policy changes. This fuels tensions with Iran, potentially escalating into direct conflict. The US imposes sanctions on Iranian oil exports, triggering a global energy crisis. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The US government implements targeted fiscal measures to address inflation and grocery prices. This may include tax breaks for low-income households, increased spending on social programs, or adjustments to import tariffs. The Iranian conflict remains volatile but doesn't escalate into direct confrontation.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** A significant increase in anti, Trump protests across the US, followed by a formal impeachment inquiry initiated by Congress.

Первичный источник: FT World

Хотите получать такие сценарии в email или Telegram до публикации в каталоге?

Тарифы и подписки →