Дроны нанесли удары по оккупированным районам Донецкой и Луганской областей и Крыму: пострадали электростанция, нефтебаза и железная дорога

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates its military operations in Ukraine by deploying more advanced weaponry and increasing troop deployments in occupied territories. This leads to increased tensions with NATO, prompting a response from Western powers including sanctions or military aid for Ukraine. The attacks on infrastructure become more frequent and targeted, potentially leading to escalation of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. * Increased reports of Russian missile launches near Ukrainian borders. * Public statements from NATO members regarding increased military support for Ukraine. * Russia's annexation of additional territories in Ukraine. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The attack on infrastructure in occupied areas remains a point of tension, but without significant

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates its military operations in Ukraine by deploying more advanced weaponry and increasing troop deployments in occupied territories. This leads to increased tensions with NATO, prompting a response from Western powers including sanctions or military aid for Ukraine. The attacks on infrastructure become more frequent and targeted, potentially leading to escalation of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. * Increased reports of Russian missile launches near Ukrainian borders. * Public statements from NATO members regarding increased military support for Ukraine. * Russia's annexation of additional territories in Ukraine. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The attack on infrastructure in occupied areas remains a point of tension, but without significant

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates its military operations in Ukraine by deploying more advanced weaponry and increasing troop deployments in occupied territories. This leads to increased tensions with NATO, prompting a response from Western powers including sanctions or military aid for Ukraine. The attacks on infrastructure become more frequent and targeted, potentially leading to escalation of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. * Increased reports of Russian missile launches near Ukrainian borders. * Public statements from NATO members regarding increased military support for Ukraine. * Russia's annexation of additional territories in Ukraine. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The attack on infrastructure in occupied areas remains a point of tension, but without significant