Зеленский раскритиковал «мерзкий» чернобыльский удар беспилотника перед переговорами в Лондоне

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia intensifies its military action in Ukraine, possibly targeting nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure as retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. This escalation could involve increased missile strikes, drone deployments, and potential cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased public statements from Russian officials threatening further escalation, a surge in military activity near the border with Ukraine, and evidence of targeting nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure. * **Time Horizon:** Within 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The international community continues to focus on diplomatic solutions for resolving the conflict in Ukraine. This includes continued negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian representati

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia intensifies its military action in Ukraine, possibly targeting nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure as retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. This escalation could involve increased missile strikes, drone deployments, and potential cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased public statements from Russian officials threatening further escalation, a surge in military activity near the border with Ukraine, and evidence of targeting nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure. * **Time Horizon:** Within 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The international community continues to focus on diplomatic solutions for resolving the conflict in Ukraine. This includes continued negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian representati

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Russia intensifies its military action in Ukraine, possibly targeting nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure as retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. This escalation could involve increased missile strikes, drone deployments, and potential cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased public statements from Russian officials threatening further escalation, a surge in military activity near the border with Ukraine, and evidence of targeting nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure. * **Time Horizon:** Within 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The international community continues to focus on diplomatic solutions for resolving the conflict in Ukraine. This includes continued negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian representati