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geopolitical··severity 8

Китай добавляет боеголовки, поскольку ядерные державы «уходят» от разоружения: SIPRI

Китай увеличил свои запасы ядерных боеголовок за последний год и, возможно, увеличил количество развернутых оперативных сил, говорится в докладе шведского аналитического центра, предупреждая, что крупные державы «уходят» от обязательств по разоружению. Согласно отчету, опубликованному в понедельник в рамках последнего ежегодника Стокгольмского международного института исследования проблем мира (SIPRI), по состоянию на январь 2026 года Китай добавил 20 боеголовок в свой ядерный арсенал, в результате чего их общее количество достигло 620 по сравнению с 600 в год...

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** China's nuclear expansion signals an increased risk of escalation in global tensions. Within 14 days, China conducts a major military exercise involving its nuclear-capable forces near disputed territories in the South China Sea. This action is followed by joint US-South Korea military exercises in the region within 3 weeks, escalating tensions and increasing the likelihood of miscalculation and accidental conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The global community continues to grapple with the implications of China's nuclear expansion, but diplomatic efforts remain focused o

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** China publicly announces increased deployment of nuclear, capable missiles to disputed areas (e.g., Taiwan). Increased activity of US/South Korean naval vessels near disputed territories.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** China's nuclear expansion signals an increased risk of escalation in global tensions. Within 14 days, China conducts a major military exercise involving its nuclear-capable forces near disputed territories in the South China Sea. This action is followed by joint US-South Korea military exercises in the region within 3 weeks, escalating tensions and increasing the likelihood of miscalculation and accidental conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The global community continues to grapple with the implications of China's nuclear expansion, but diplomatic efforts remain focused o

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** China publicly announces increased deployment of nuclear, capable missiles to disputed areas (e.g., Taiwan). Increased activity of US/South Korean naval vessels near disputed territories.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** China's nuclear expansion signals an increased risk of escalation in global tensions. Within 14 days, China conducts a major military exercise involving its nuclear-capable forces near disputed territories in the South China Sea. This action is followed by joint US-South Korea military exercises in the region within 3 weeks, escalating tensions and increasing the likelihood of miscalculation and accidental conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The global community continues to grapple with the implications of China's nuclear expansion, but diplomatic efforts remain focused o

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** China publicly announces increased deployment of nuclear, capable missiles to disputed areas (e.g., Taiwan). Increased activity of US/South Korean naval vessels near disputed territories.

Первичный источник: South China Morning Post

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