Пакистанский министр в Тегеране снова пытается перезапустить Иран – переговоры с США

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Pakistan's minister in Tehran triggers further diplomatic pressure on Iran and the US to restart talks. This could lead to increased military deployments by both sides, escalating tensions in the region. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased rhetoric from Pakistani officials regarding the need for action, followed by a joint statement from Pakistan and Iran explicitly demanding US engagement. * **Time Horizon:** 10-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Baseline:** The minister's visit to Tehran is seen as a diplomatic effort to maintain dialogue, with both sides engaging in low-level communication and seeking common ground on issues of mutual interest. * **Confirmation Indicators:** No significant escalation in rhetoric or actions from either side. Continued engagement through diplomatic channels, in

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Pakistan's minister in Tehran triggers further diplomatic pressure on Iran and the US to restart talks. This could lead to increased military deployments by both sides, escalating tensions in the region. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased rhetoric from Pakistani officials regarding the need for action, followed by a joint statement from Pakistan and Iran explicitly demanding US engagement. * **Time Horizon:** 10-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Baseline:** The minister's visit to Tehran is seen as a diplomatic effort to maintain dialogue, with both sides engaging in low-level communication and seeking common ground on issues of mutual interest. * **Confirmation Indicators:** No significant escalation in rhetoric or actions from either side. Continued engagement through diplomatic channels, in

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Pakistan's minister in Tehran triggers further diplomatic pressure on Iran and the US to restart talks. This could lead to increased military deployments by both sides, escalating tensions in the region. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased rhetoric from Pakistani officials regarding the need for action, followed by a joint statement from Pakistan and Iran explicitly demanding US engagement. * **Time Horizon:** 10-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Baseline:** The minister's visit to Tehran is seen as a diplomatic effort to maintain dialogue, with both sides engaging in low-level communication and seeking common ground on issues of mutual interest. * **Confirmation Indicators:** No significant escalation in rhetoric or actions from either side. Continued engagement through diplomatic channels, in