Petronas ищет доступ к газовому месторождению Туркменистана, говорит Бернама

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Petronas' access request triggers diplomatic tensions between Malaysia and Turkmenistan, potentially escalating into a public disagreement over gas pricing and transit routes. This could lead to sanctions from international bodies like the G7 or the EU on both countries. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A statement by Turkmenistan's government directly rejecting Petronas' request within 2 weeks, followed by diplomatic exchanges between Malaysian and Turkmen officials escalating in a public forum. * **Time Horizon:** 1-3 months **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Petronas' request is met with cautious response from Turkmenistan, leading to a period of negotiation and potential joint ventures for exploration and production. This could result in increased trade between Malaysia and Turkmenistan, potentially ben

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Petronas' access request triggers diplomatic tensions between Malaysia and Turkmenistan, potentially escalating into a public disagreement over gas pricing and transit routes. This could lead to sanctions from international bodies like the G7 or the EU on both countries. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A statement by Turkmenistan's government directly rejecting Petronas' request within 2 weeks, followed by diplomatic exchanges between Malaysian and Turkmen officials escalating in a public forum. * **Time Horizon:** 1-3 months **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Petronas' request is met with cautious response from Turkmenistan, leading to a period of negotiation and potential joint ventures for exploration and production. This could result in increased trade between Malaysia and Turkmenistan, potentially ben

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Petronas' access request triggers diplomatic tensions between Malaysia and Turkmenistan, potentially escalating into a public disagreement over gas pricing and transit routes. This could lead to sanctions from international bodies like the G7 or the EU on both countries. * **Confirmation Indicators:** A statement by Turkmenistan's government directly rejecting Petronas' request within 2 weeks, followed by diplomatic exchanges between Malaysian and Turkmen officials escalating in a public forum. * **Time Horizon:** 1-3 months **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Petronas' request is met with cautious response from Turkmenistan, leading to a period of negotiation and potential joint ventures for exploration and production. This could result in increased trade between Malaysia and Turkmenistan, potentially ben