Израиль закрывает все контрольно-пропускные пункты в секторе Газа после ракетного обстрела Ирана
Израиль закрыл все контрольно-пропускные пункты в секторе Газа после иранского ракетного обстрела Израиль закрыл все контрольно-пропускные пункты в сектор Газа после того, как Иран выпустил ракеты по Израилю, в очередной раз ужесточая осаду анклава. COGAT, израильское правительственное агентство, которое курирует гражданские дела на оккупированной палестинской территории, сообщило, что были закрыты КПП Керем Шалом или Карем Абу Салем и Рафах. «После ракетных атак, нанесенных Ираном против Государства Израиль, был принят ряд необходимых мер безопасности, включая закрытие контрольно-пропускных пунктов в сектор Газа, в том числе контрольно-пропускной пункт Керем Шалом [Карем Абу Салем] и контрольно-пропускной пункт Рафах, до дальнейшего уведомления», — говорится в заявлении ведомства.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran-backed groups in Gaza fire retaliatory rockets towards Israel, escalating tensions. Israel responds with airstrikes on targets within Gaza, targeting Hamas infrastructure and military positions. This triggers a humanitarian crisis in Gaza as access to essential supplies is disrupted. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel, followed by Israeli airstrikes with confirmed casualties reported. * **Time horizon:** Within 7 days, escalating to full-scale conflict within the next 14 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions through intermediaries, with limited progress on a long-term solution. The Israeli government maintains its blockade of Gaza, but allows for humanitarian aid access and limited tra
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran-backed groups in Gaza fire retaliatory rockets towards Israel, escalating tensions. Israel responds with airstrikes on targets within Gaza, targeting Hamas infrastructure and military positions. This triggers a humanitarian crisis in Gaza as access to essential supplies is disrupted. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel, followed by Israeli airstrikes with confirmed casualties reported. * **Time horizon:** Within 7 days, escalating to full-scale conflict within the next 14 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions through intermediaries, with limited progress on a long-term solution. The Israeli government maintains its blockade of Gaza, but allows for humanitarian aid access and limited tra
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran-backed groups in Gaza fire retaliatory rockets towards Israel, escalating tensions. Israel responds with airstrikes on targets within Gaza, targeting Hamas infrastructure and military positions. This triggers a humanitarian crisis in Gaza as access to essential supplies is disrupted. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel, followed by Israeli airstrikes with confirmed casualties reported. * **Time horizon:** Within 7 days, escalating to full-scale conflict within the next 14 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions through intermediaries, with limited progress on a long-term solution. The Israeli government maintains its blockade of Gaza, but allows for humanitarian aid access and limited tra
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
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