俄罗斯进军缅甸掸邦开采钨矿 与中国展开竞争

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Probability** * **Chain:** Russia's military incursion into Myanmar's Shan State for tungsten mining triggers heightened tensions between China and Russia. China expresses concerns over its strategic interests in the region, potentially leading to increased military exercises near the border. Tensions may escalate further if Chinese companies are impacted by sanctions or trade restrictions imposed by Western countries in response to the Russian invasion. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased rhetoric from both China and Russia regarding their respective positions in Myanmar and the potential for conflict escalation. China's official stance on the situation becomes more assertive, possibly including public statements of support for the Burmese military government. * **Time Horizon:** Within 1-2 weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo):

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Probability** * **Chain:** Russia's military incursion into Myanmar's Shan State for tungsten mining triggers heightened tensions between China and Russia. China expresses concerns over its strategic interests in the region, potentially leading to increased military exercises near the border. Tensions may escalate further if Chinese companies are impacted by sanctions or trade restrictions imposed by Western countries in response to the Russian invasion. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased rhetoric from both China and Russia regarding their respective positions in Myanmar and the potential for conflict escalation. China's official stance on the situation becomes more assertive, possibly including public statements of support for the Burmese military government. * **Time Horizon:** Within 1-2 weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo):

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Probability** * **Chain:** Russia's military incursion into Myanmar's Shan State for tungsten mining triggers heightened tensions between China and Russia. China expresses concerns over its strategic interests in the region, potentially leading to increased military exercises near the border. Tensions may escalate further if Chinese companies are impacted by sanctions or trade restrictions imposed by Western countries in response to the Russian invasion. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased rhetoric from both China and Russia regarding their respective positions in Myanmar and the potential for conflict escalation. China's official stance on the situation becomes more assertive, possibly including public statements of support for the Burmese military government. * **Time Horizon:** Within 1-2 weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo):